Overview

The Greater Growth scenarios center around specific narratives developed through discussions with regional stakeholders. The scenarios have distinctly different assumptions for future growth in jobs, based on key industry drivers in each scenario narrative. Likewise, patterns of population growth will vary across scenarios, depending on scenario assumptions. For all three Greater Growth scenarios, the forecasted growth in jobs and population will be the same. This forecasted growth is in addition to the 2045 baseline growth from the HRTPO Board-approved 2045 Socioeconomic Forecast.

Click here to watch a video from a recent open house about the Greater Growth scenarios.

Key Drivers

Within each scenario are certain parameters—demographics and land use, economics, and technology—which have their own drivers. Drivers are external factors that can influence the future scenarios but are uncertain in the future. Through scenario planning, we are able to adjust the “settings” of these drivers to produce variable outcomes.

Scenario Narratives

The scenario narratives describe the key drivers and the intended travel patterns to be tested by each scenario (see graphic below). The Regional Connectors Study (RCS) Steering (Policy) Committee approved the initial scenario narratives for the Greater Growth Scenarios in July 2019.

Land Use & Demographics

Examples of land use and demographic drivers include population, locations of population growth clusters, and the generational mix of future populations. The land use model uses regional place types and suitability factors to distribute growth differently in each scenario.

Economics

Examples of economic drivers include industry diversification, military activity, port activities, and tourism.

Technology

Examples of technology drivers include connected/autonomous vehicle (CAV) implementation and shared mobility costs and usage.